Employment (Total Nonfarm Payroll) is used to measure the number of workers in the U.S. economy. It excludes certain categories such as proprietors, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, farm employees, and the unincorporated self-employed. This measure represents around 80 percent of the workers who contribute to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

This measure provides valuable insights into the current economic conditions as it reflects the changes in the number of jobs in the economy. An increase in employment suggests that businesses are hiring, which could indicate growth in those businesses. Additionally, newly employed individuals experience an increase in their personal incomes, leading to higher disposable incomes, which further supports economic expansion.

Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons indicator focuses on individuals who work part-time due to economic circumstances, providing insights into underemployment and labor market conditions.

Fluctuations in the U.S. labor force, employment levels, and unemployment are influenced by seasonal factors like weather changes, holidays, and school schedules. To account for these seasonal effects and focus on non-seasonal changes, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adjusts the data. This adjustment allows for a closer analysis of specific trends such as women's participation in the labor force or general shifts in the number of employees, which could indicate economic downturns.

Financial market pundits believe that the decline in indicators such as Housing, New Orders, Profits, and Employment can be considered a forewarning for any recession in the U.S. economy. 

This visualisation, by default, shows the employment relative to S&P 500. Other macroeconomic indicators related to employment or other assets, such as stocks, can be selected in the primary and secondary indexes to understand their relationship. This data series is provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and gathered as part of economic surveys conducted by BLS. The BLS releases two monthly statistical measures to examine both seasonal and non-seasonal changes.

Key Takeaways

A data-driven investor can track changes in indicators such as employment to position their bets to maximise gains at acceptable risks.